Laurent Denize Global Co-CIO ODDO BHF Asset Management.
“There are 1,300 days to go until the next US presidential election. After 100 days, it is fair to say that the twists and turns have been much greater than initially expected”
“Move fast and break things” – in his second term, Donald Trump seems to be adopting the motto of his friends in the technology industry. This style of government is generating frenzied media coverage and great uncertainty among investors and consumers. But what has really changed since his inauguration on 20 January? Beyond the exaggerations and executive orders, there are a handful of measurable changes that the US President can claim credit for after the first 100 days of his second term: $18 billion in revenue from tariffs (based on April 2025 figures), $165 billion in savings from the Department of Government Efficiency (vs. a target of $1000 billion) and a drop in immigration numbers (300k entries in the 4 first months of 2025 vs. 3.1 million in full-year 2024 and 4.3 million in full-year 2023). However, investors and companies are paying the price for these early successes in implementing Trump’s agenda, which are modest compared to the volatility it creates in financial markets across almost all asset classes.
Alea jacta est with Trump’s inauguration 100 days ago
The uncertainty triggered by the back-and-forth in trade policy has affected US equities since Trump’s inauguration. Technology stocks, heavily reliant on China for manufacturing, supplies and sales, have underperformed. In contrast, losses in Europe have been limited. Alongside China, Germany’s DAX stock index has been one of the best-performing worldwide, gaining almost 10% year-to-date on the back of rising expectations for infrastructure and defense spending. Nevertheless, the cost for security in an era of erratic decision-making has made gold the safe-haven currency and the winner of Trump 2.0’s first 100 days, with prices rising by almost +20%.
However, concerns about the impact of higher tariffs are also increasing in the real economy: US consumer sentiment has deteriorated, sending Donald Trump’s approval ratings to a historic low for this stage of a presidency. The Fed also faces a dilemma in the face of a looming stagflation: Easing monetary policy to support the economy could raise the risk of inflation. If it keeps interest rates stable, it may not be able to reduce the growing risk of recession. The Fed has not yet given up hope of a soft landing, but the risks of a wait-and-see approach are increasing.
